TUESDAY,  FEBRUARY 12, 2008

•   Happy birthday, President Lincoln. 

Readers, please tell your children that Abraham Lincoln was born on this date, not on Presidents Day.  Please tell their teachers as well.  Please tell their teachers who Abraham Lincoln was.

•   The New York Times does some good work today.  First, there's an analysis, not optimistic, on Hillary Clinton's plight.  It's clear she's in trouble.  Yes, her "people" predicted she'd have a dry spell, as the February primary calendar favors Obama.  But she's developing a "Rudy" problem.  You can give all the explanations you wish.  If you're not winning primaries, talk turns to those who are:

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton and her advisers increasingly believe that, after a series of losses, she has been boxed into a must-win position in the Ohio and Texas primaries on March 4, and she has begun reassuring anxious donors and superdelegates that the nomination is not slipping away from her, aides said on Monday.

Mrs. Clinton held a buck-up-the-troops conference call on Monday with donors, superdelegates and other supporters; several said afterward that she had sounded tired and a little down, but determined about Ohio and Texas.

They also said that they had not been especially soothed, and that they believed she might be on a losing streak that could jeopardize her competitiveness in those states.

Just as ominous, there's this:

Several Clinton superdelegates, whose votes could help decide the nomination, said Monday that they were wavering in the face of Mr. Obama’s momentum after victories in Washington State, Nebraska, Louisiana and Maine last weekend.

Some said that they, like the hundreds of uncommitted superdelegates still at stake, might ultimately “go with the flow,” in the words of one, and support the candidate who appears to show the most strength in the primaries to come.

See those dots in the sky?  They're called vultures. 

The Clinton people are trying to fight back, pointing out that she's raising good money, and making other arguments, some pretty thin:

“There is no evidence that voters are voting based on momentum — in fact the evidence is to the contrary,” said Howard Wolfson, Mrs. Clinton’s communications director.

Howard, your opposition is a religious crusade.  The regular rules don't apply.

•   But John Dickerson, at Slate, takes a contrarian view, arguing against counting Hillary out.  I don't think he's as convincing as the Times piece, but he's worth reading:

The best news for Hillary Clinton's campaign may be that it's headed over a cliff. In a campaign season where conventional wisdom has been so wrong so often, she can take heart that the current view among the political class is that Obama is marching unstoppably toward the nomination.

He gives some good reasons for Clinton to feel some optimism, claiming she still controls important voting blocs, and he says:

Clinton's support among these key demographics also provides her with her electability argument as she tries to make the case that Obama is a modern-day George McGovern—the pet rock of the party's wealthy liberal wing. "How can we have a nominee who can't win the votes of working-class people?" says one Clinton strategist. It's a good question.

It sure is, and maybe Hillary should start asking it publicly.  I suspect she's afraid to because current polls show Obama stronger than she is in the general election.  But she must make clear that the election is many months away, and that voters will learn about Obama's ultra-liberalism, and will start to shy away, leaving her the stronger candidate.  But even Dickerson concludes:

In a race where so much that seemed certain has not been, any struggling candidate can find a reason to persevere, especially perhaps a candidate who was once seen as inevitable. Of course the race's switchbacks have now become such a predictable part of conventional wisdom that it may be time now for the undulations to stop and for momentum to start playing a role again. In that case, Clinton is doomed.

Yes, journalists hedge their bets.  Always maintain a balanced portfolio.

•   David Brooks, also in The Times, gives a hard-headed critique of the so-called Democratic unity on the issues, and finds it a mirage, likely to evaporate if a Democrat wins the White House.  Brooks is especially telling on Iraq:

The first big rift would involve Iraq. Both Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have seductively hinted that they would withdraw almost all U.S. troops within 12 to 16 months. But if either of them actually did that, he or she would instantly make Iraq the consuming partisan fight of their presidency.

There would be private but powerful opposition from Arab leaders, who would fear a return to 2006 chaos. There would be irate opposition from important sections of the military, who would feel that the U.S. was squandering the gains of the previous year. A Democratic president with few military credentials would confront outraged and highly photogenic colonels screaming betrayal.

And this:

Therefore, when a new Democratic administration considered all these possibilities, its members would part ways. A certain number of centrists would conclude that rapid withdrawal is a mistake. They would say that the situation had changed and would call for a strategic review. They’d recommend a long, slow conditions-based withdrawal — constant, small troop reductions, and a lot of regional diplomacy, while maintaining tens of thousands of troops in Iraq for the remainder of the term.

The left wing of the party would go into immediate uproar. They’d scream: This was a central issue of the campaign! All the troops must get out now!

Welcome, Democrats, to the world of grown-ups.  It's a world you once inhabited with Roosevelt, Truman and Jack Kennedy.  You may have to go back in.  Sorry.  Save the lollipops for later.

•   Meanwhile, on the other side, Mike Huckabee refuses to quit.  We'll see if he sings that tune after today's primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and in the District of Columbia, whose three Republicans have already voted.  The key quote:

Huckabee says he'll drop out if he's mathematically eliminated - in other words, once McCain racks up the needed 1,191 delegates.

But that probably can't happen until April 22, when Pennsylvania votes.

For practical purposes, McCain already appears beyond Huckabee's reach. According to the latest count by The Associated Press, McCain had 729 delegates to Huckabee's 241 delegates. One factor keeping McCain from claiming a majority sooner is that Romney has yet to release his 288 delegates.

Mike, we hardly knew ye, but maybe it's better that way.  You can only do harm, and no good.  It ain't gonna happen this year.  You're young, there's a future, you'll learn where Iran is.  Go home to some Southern cooking, and support the winner.

•   Oh look, the British archbishop is having a bad day.  Maybe a higher power is telling him something about exposing his dumbness - like suggesting that parts of Sharia law be introduced on Robin Hood's turf:

Commentators called Monday the most important day of the archbishop's five years in office, following a weekend of often harsh rejoinders that recognizing sharia would undermine British values and laws, notably concerning the rights of women. There were scattered calls for his resignation.

The furor underlined the unease that many Britons of Christian heritage feel concerning the creed of the approximately 2 million Muslims who live in the country.

Yeah, especially when trains and buses are inconvenienced by bombs.

The archbishop meekly says:

"Some of what has been heard is a very long way indeed from what was actually said," he noted, adding that he "must of course take responsibility for any unclarity" and for any "misleading choice of words."

Maybe a good course called "English in everyday usage" would help.  You can get the DVD.  And the Oxford Shorter Dictionary is a nice gift.

The criticism continues.  The archbishop is likely to have more hard times ahead:

Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Matthew d'Ancona, an author on Christian theology, said Williams's speech last week "showed that even the mildest-mannered intellectual can become a bulldog in the social china shop, spraying daft ideas around with a recklessness that disgraced his office."

Amazing how rough the Brits can be when provoked.  The old bulldog still lives.

•   And The Washington Times reminds us that silliness isn't restricted to the Mother Country.  There are Americans who have become shills for the despicable Hugo Chavez, including a Kennedy, who should know better:   

"The more I see, the more I realize that almost no one really cares about right and wrong. They care about money and supporting anyone who opposes George W. Bush."

Over a coffee last week with a high-level official of our government, that was the comment made to me regarding the Hugo Chavez-Citgo-Joe Kennedy II propaganda campaign now running across our nation. In TV commercials and in full-page print advertising, former Rep. Joe Kennedy thanks "our good friends in Venezuela" for helping to heat America's poor.

It's sickening.  This Kennedy is named for his grandfather, who disgraced himself and his family by his appeasement, and worse, of Adolph Hitler before World War II.  For decades the family has been trying to live down that legacy.  Now Joe II resurrects the image of a Kennedy groveling before an anti-American thug. 

There are a lot of Kennedys.  I guess they didn't have enough brains to go around.

There are others, some the usual suspects:

Clearly, like Bolshevik revolutionary Vladimir Lenin, Venezuelan strongman Chavez has found his "useful idiots" in the guise of Mr. Kennedy; actors Sean Penn and Danny Glover; Democratic Reps. William Delahunt of Massachusetts and Jose Serrano of New York; and the sycophant he has installed to run Citgo here in the United States. All sing his praises, all do his bidding, and all shame themselves with their self-serving actions.

Maybe someone should ask Hillary or Barack about that crowd.  McCain staff, please copy. 

And we'll be back later with more tales of patriotism.

Posted on February 12, 2008.